“The provisional results of the 2014 Elections”. (Fiji Times, 20 Sep. 2014)
The Provisional Results of the Fiji 2014 Elections
Professor Wadan Narsey (Fiji Times 19 Sep. 2014)
[This is virtually a repeat of my previous Fiji Times article “Who will get elected” (Fiji Times, 19 July 2014) available here http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=274767] except that I am now using the provisional results.
By Thursday evening (18/9/2014), the Elections Office had put out provisional counting results, which were aggregated by Fiji Village and put on their website.
While some political parties are complaining about irregularities, what do these provisional numbers mean, if they are accurate?
I show in Column (1) of Table 1, the aggregated party votes, totaling 397,891 votes (source: Fiji Village).
If we assume that some 530,000 voters will have voted (or a record 90% voter turnout), then the provisional votes of 397,891 represent about 73% of total votes cast.
Even if the remaining 130,000 votes are counted, it is unlikely that the percentages in columns (2) and (4) will change too much to make a difference to column (5)- seats won.
Column (1) gives the provisional votes received by all the parties and Independents, and column (2) gives percentages of the votes cast.
Those in grey did not make the threshold and are all eliminated, and their votes discarded.
Column (4) then calculates, using the votes only of parties above the 5% threshold, the percentage of seats they are entitled to, according to the share of the votes for qualifying parties, given in column (5).
Notice that the percentages in column (4) are all higher than the percentages in column (2) because the others have been eliminated.
Notice that NFP just makes the threshold with 5.6% of the votes. Of course, this might change up or down when the remaining 130,000 votes are counted,
Column (5) then estimates the number of seats which the parties will be entitled to, based on the provisional votes, roughly as follows (similar to results by the D’Hondt method):
Fiji First Party 33
National Federation Party 3.
If when all the votes are counted, NFP’s share of votes declines below 5%, then they will get no seats at all, and the 3 they are entitled to will go to the others, probably another 2 to FFP, and another 1 to SODELPA. But there is no reason to suppose that NFP’s share of final votes will be less than 5%.
In the final tally after all the votes have been counted, FFP may be 1 more or less (and SODELPA conversely), keeping the total for the three parties to 50 seats.
There is very little doubt that Fiji First Party will be able to form government without coalition with any of the other parties, given that they have well over 25 seats in the 50 seats parliament.
Who will be elected?
It is possible to look at the detailed candidate lists put out by Fiji Village based on the provisional votes, with candidates ranked by the number of provisional votes they have received, and know with some confidence who are likely to be elected.
For FFP, almost certainly, the top 31 candidates on that list will be elected.
For SODELPA, almost certainly, the top 13 candidates are likely to be elected.
For NFP, if their share of the final votes is still above 5%, their top 3 candidates are likely to be elected.
I suspect that the remaining 130,000 votes which were not counted in the provisional votes will show exactly the same patterns as have the previous 398 thousand votes., with Bainimarama collecting the bulk of extra FFP votes, Ro Temumu collecting the bulk of extra SODELPA votes, and Professor Biman Prasad and Roko Tupou Draunidalo collecting the bulk of extra NFP votes.
Should any other candidate suddenly get a large number of votes from these three parties, then they will push their way up their Party lists, and be elected, at the expense of his or her colleague from the bottom end of the qualifying list.
[The political intricacies of the Fiji September 2014 Elections are examined in another article.]
[While the Electoral Commission is pronouncing the Sept. 17 Elections as “free and fair”, another article explains how the Sep. 2014 Elections can hardly be called “free” or “fair”].