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“The Final Count in the 2014 Elections”. The Fiji Times, 23 Sep 2014

23/09/2014

The Final Results of the Fiji 2014 Elections
Professor Wadan Narsey (FT 23 Sep. 2014)

By the morning of Monday 22 September 2014, the Elections Office put out the final counts of the September 17 Fiji Elections (as well as the detailed results from each of the polling stations).

Column (1) of Table 1, gives the aggregated party and Independents; votes, totaling 496,364 votes, representing an 84% turnout of the registered 590 thousand voters.

Estimated seats for 2014 elections

This is not a particularly high percentage, given the massive (probably record) amount of funds and publicity devoted to this elections.

Column (2) gives the percentages of the votes cast received by the Parties and Independents.

Those in grey did not make the threshold and are all eliminated, and their votes discarded.  Four small parties and the two Independents did not make the 5% threshold cut.

Column (3) then gives only the votes of the qualifying parties with above the 5% threshold votes.

Column (4) then calculates, the percentage of seats they are entitled to, according to the share of the votes for qualifying parties (now only a total of 460,637).

These percentages in (4) are all higher than the percentages in column (2) because the votes of the smaller parties and Independents have been eliminated.

Column (5) then estimates the number of seats which the parties will be entitled to, based on the provisional votes, as follows (similar to results by the D’Hondt method):

Fiji First Party                           32

SODELPA                                     15

National Federation Party          3.

 

There is little doubt that Fiji First Party will be able to form government without coalition with any of the other parties, given that they have well over 25 seats in the 50 seats parliament.

Who will be elected?

The detailed candidate lists put out by the Elections Office with candidates all ranked by the numbers of votes they have received, therefore tell you who have been elected to Parliament.

Select the first 32 from Fiji First Party, the first 15 from SODELPA, and the first 3 from National Federation Party.

Some lessons:

 

  • Had the small parties and Independents amalgamated they would have won 4 seats, which would have been denied to the other parties.

 

  • Even if FLP and PDP had amalgamated, they would have been entitled to 3 seats, the same as NFP

 

  • Had Roshika Deo (1055 votes) stood for Fiji First Party and retained her votes (no guarantee of that), she would have been elected.

 

  • The mantra of 1 person = 1 vote = 1 value does not have any meaning for 35,727 persons who voted for the disqualified small parties and Independents, as their votes became worth nothing. The 4 seats that should have gone to them were by decree, reallocated to the larger parties.

 

  • While the system gives the appearance of selecting candidates, in reality, the votes to Party Leaders end up pulling into parliament, their party candidates who have far fewer votes than candidates who lost because they belonged to small parties. It pays to belong to large parties, and especially to those with popular  leaders and populist election strategies.

 

  • Rough estimates from these final voting figures suggest that Fiji First Party obtained some 80% of all Indo-Fijian votes and 41% of indigenous Fijian votes.  SODELPA obtained roughly 50% of all indigenous Fijian votes.

 

  • Note that with an average of 9927 votes cast per parliamentarian, only 2 from FFP, and 1 from SODELPA got higher votes.
  • For the remaining 30 successful candidates in FFP, Bainimarama obtained the necessary votes to get them elected.
  • And emphasizing the team effort for SODELPA and NFP, it was also the votes of all the unsuccessful candidates which accumulated to win the next 14 for SODELPA and all 3 for NFP.

 

[Most of these results were predicted in my previous Fiji Times article “Who will get elected” (Fiji Times, 19 July 2014) available here http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=274767].

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